How President Trump Can Still Win The US Election

 Due to record-shattering fundraising, the Democrat also has a sizeable financial advantage, which means he'll be able to blanket the airwaves with his campaign message in the final weeks.

Electoral analysts have been increasing their odds that Trump will lose his re-election bid. Nate Silver's Fivethirtyeight.com blog currently has Biden with an 87% changes of winning, while Decision Desk HQ puts him at 83.5%. 

• How is Trump doing in the polls?

If all of this is painfully familiar to Democrats, it should be. At a similar point four years ago, Hillary Clinton was also predicted to have a high likelihood of victory. They remember how that turned out.

Could history repeat itself with another Trump victory? If the president is taking the oath of office once again in January, here are five possible reasons why it happened.

Another October surprise

Four years ago, just 11 days before the election, FBI Director James Comey disclosed that his agency was reopening an investigation into Clinton's use of a private email server while secretary of state. For a week, related stories dominated the headlines and gave the Trump campaign room to breathe.

With just over two weeks before polls close in 2020, a similar seismic political event might be enough to propel Trump to victory.

So far, at least, the big surprises this month have been bad news for Trump - such as the revelation of his tax returns and his hospitalisation for Covid-19. 

image captionHunter Biden and his father, then Vice-President Joe Biden, in 2016

A New York Post article about a mysterious laptop containing an email that might link Joe Biden to his son Hunter's efforts to lobby for a Ukrainian gas company has been billed by some conservatives as such a campaign earthquake - but its questionable provenance and lack of specificity means it's unlikely to sway many voters. 

• Biden article reignites social media bias claims

Trump has promised that there's more to come, however. If this is just an opening salvo, setting up direct evidence of wrongdoing by Biden while vice-president, that could be a different, bigger story.